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*Why Kamala Harris May Still Lose, According to US Polling 'Nostradamus'*


Presidential historian Allan Lichtman argues that Kamala Harris's path to the White House is not yet "a foregone conclusion," as several unresolved issues could still impact the presidential race

In one of his regular reports on the state of the election on Saturday, Lichtman took aim at the "herd mentality" of the U.S. mainstream media, and its "180 degree" turn on the Democrat's chances of victory.

Lichtman urged viewers to focus less on "poll-driven, pundit-driven analysis," which he compared to "sports talk radio," and to instead look to his "keys to the White House" method for predicting presidential races.

His model—which has successfully forecast all but one presidential election result since 1984—has seen Lichtman being described as America's polling "Nostradamus."

The model consists of 13 true/false statements, referred to as "keys." If six or more of these statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. If five or fewer are false, that party is expected to win.

According to Lichtman, this shows that, "like Joe Biden, Kamala Harris does have some significant advantages when it comes to the fundamentals that drive presidential elections, but that her election in November is not a foregone conclusion."

Harris' selection to replace Biden did lose the "incumbency" key, Lichtman said, but "Democrats grew a spine and a brain and united around Harris, avoiding the loss of the contest key."

However, he cautioned that the Democrats have already given up the "party mandate" key, having lost the House to Republicans in the 2022 midterms.

In addition, Lichtman said that Harris fails to secure Democrats the "charisma" key, as she "is not an FDR who has shown she's capable of converting large numbers of members of the opposition."

As a result, Lichtman said that the election will come down to four keys.

The first of these is the third party key, and the emergence of a significant alternative to the two main candidates who could carve out votes from their base.

Recent polling from The New York Times showed that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds only five percent of voters' support, with Harris and Trump at 45 and 43 percent, respectively.

Lichtman has said that for this key to turn false, RFK Jr would have to have the stable support of around 10 percent of the electorate.

The other three keys which will "decide the election," according to Lichtman, are domestic social unrest, foreign/military failure and foreign/military success by the incumbent administration.

Lichtman previously told Newsweek that, despite America's involvement in the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, he is likely to decide that the foreign military failure key is false.

On August 6, Lichtman also warned that the "short term economy" key was now "shaky," as a result of early August's "very weak jobs report" and the resultant stock market skid. However, Lichtman said that the key had not yet turned against the Democrats.

*"The big message is ignore the polls, ignore the pundits," Lichtman added. "Don't follow the herd of the media, but look to how American presidential elections really work as gauged by the keys to the White House."*

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